Wealth Management

Evan Kulak
Financial Advisor
Credit Union Wealth Group
307.365.6069

evan@cuwgroup.com

Key Updates on the Economy & Markets

The third quarter combined solid economic and corporate fundamentals with renewed pressure from oil and interest rates. Oil traded back above $100 per barrel, inflation remained elevated, Treasury yields surged higher, and the Federal Reserve raised rates in September. The S&P 500 traded higher and set a new all-time high as corporate earnings and economic activity remained strong, but beneath the headline gain, market leadership narrowed as smaller companies and rate-sensitive areas lagged. Meanwhile, artificial intelligence continued to play a large role in both the economy and financial markets. In this letter, we look at the forces pushing interest rates higher, the economic and earnings strength helping offset those pressures, and AI’s expanding influence on everyday borrowing costs, business investment, and the stock market.

2026 Outlook – What to Watch in Q4

Economic growth and corporate earnings remain strong heading into Q4, even as higher oil prices and interest rates have created a mixed and volatile backdrop. One of the main questions heading into Q4 is whether the underlying strength continues as households and businesses adjust to higher borrowing costs, persistent inflation pressure, and continued uncertainty around energy prices.

The economy has handled those pressures relatively well thus far. Consumers have continued to spend, businesses have kept investing, and unemployment has remained low. Those trends have helped support economic growth even as interest rates and borrowing costs have risen. The coming months will provide a clearer read on whether the momentum continues, particularly economic data that tracks consumer spending, hiring, and business investment.

Corporate earnings will be another important source of information. Profit growth has been strong over the past year and provided fundamental support to the market amidst a volatile macro backdrop. Q3 earnings season, which begins in October, will provide an updated look at how companies are managing higher interest rates, changing input costs, and continued investment while maintaining revenue and profit growth.

The AI investment cycle will remain an important part of the discussion as well. Spending on data centers, computing equipment, and related infrastructure continues to support business investment, while large technology companies are increasingly using the bond market to help finance the buildout. As the cycle matures, the focus is likely to broaden from how much is being spent to what that investment is producing in revenue, profits, and productivity.

Markets have absorbed several changes this year without losing their underlying support from economic growth and corporate earnings. We will continue watching how these trends develop while keeping the focus on portfolio diversification, discipline, and meeting your long-term financial goals across a range of possible outcomes.

DISCLOSURES: Wealth management products and services are offered independently through Credit Union Wealth Group, an SEC registered investment advisor. Credit Union Wealth Group and Meridian Trust Federal Credit Union are not affiliated. Products and services made available through Credit Union Wealth Group are not insured by NCUA or any other agency of the United States and are not deposits or obligations of nor guaranteed or insured by any credit union, credit union service organization, or credit union affiliate. These products are subject to investment risk, including the possible loss of the principal amount invested.

The information and opinions provided herein are provided as general market commentary only and are subject to change at any time without notice. This commentary may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to various risks and uncertainties. None of the events or outcomes mentioned here may come to pass, and actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied in these statements. No mention of a particular security, index, or other instrument in this report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold that or any other security, nor does it constitute an opinion on the suitability of any security or index. The report is strictly an informational publication and has been prepared without regard to the particular investments and circumstances of the recipient.

Past performance does not guarantee or indicate future results. Any index performance mentioned is for illustrative purposes only and does not reflect any management fees, transaction costs, or expenses. Indexes are unmanaged, and one cannot invest directly in an index. Index performance does not represent the actual performance that would be achieved by investing in a fund.